But Continuing Claims Fell; Solid Job Growth Expected for March

•                 Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose somewhat in the week ending March 30, but remained in their 2024 range.

•                 Continuing claims fell slightly.

•                 The US labor market remains very strong.

Unemployment Rate Remains Historically Low; No Red Flags

•                     The March jobs report was very strong, with job gains of above 300,000 and a small decline in the unemployment rate to 3.8%.

•                     The details were good, with a big increase in the labor force.

Posting 51.4 in Second Consecutive Monthly Moderation

•                 The topline ISM Services PMI came in at 51.4 for March 2024.

•                 The Business Activity component of the ISM Services PMI remained solid at 57.4 as businesses continue to service current demand.

in February 2024

• The advance international goods trade deficit increased 1.5% in February 2024 from January, the third straight monthly increase.
• Both exports and imports rose on the month, and on a year-ago basis.
• Imports rose for most categories in February, both month-to-month and year-to-year.

as Inflation Slows

• Personal income rose 0.3% in February. 

• After-tax income, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.1% in February. 

• Nominal consumer spending rose 0.8% in February, the biggest increase since mid-2022. Adjusted for inflation consumer spending rose a solid 0.4% over the month.

Powell Said the Labor Market is Better Balanced Between Supply and Demand

• Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged down by 2,000 to 210,000 in the week ending March 23. The four-week moving average edged down by 1,000 to 211,000. 

• Continuing claims rose by 24,000 to 1.807 million in the week ending March 16 and the four-week moving average rose by 4,000 to 1.803 million.

Huge Increase in GDI

• There was a modest upward revision to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, to 3.4%.
• Corporate profits rose in the fourth quarter by the biggest amount in two years.
• Real gross domestic income increased by a huge 4.8% in the fourth quarter, after noticeably lagging GDP for the previous four quarters.
• The US economy will continue to expand throughout 2024.