This past week the conversation surrounding electric vehicles focused on various consumer incentives and battery recycling initiatives. In the AV space, we are monitoring announcements regarding AV shuttles and robotaxis and autopilot safety and technology. Lastly, there is much buzz out of Detroit this week as Motor Bella takes place in place of the annual North American International Auto Show.
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If you missed my previous Hot Topics email, you can read it here.
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Hot Topics of 9/20/2021 - 9/24/2021
EV Incentives
- Union-built EV tax credit provision faces hurdle
- Congress aims to revamp consumer incentives for plug-in electric vehicles
- Dems propose new $12,500 electric car rebate, Tesla left with $4,500 disadvantage
- Dozens More Models, New Incentives, and Increased Production Mean Buyers Could Find Plenty of Reasons to Go Electric
- India aims to boost EV production with incentives
My thoughts:
As we consider President Biden’s executive order (non-binding) for 50% of EV sales to be BEV, PHEV, or Fuel cell by 2030, it is apparent that many elements will contribute to meeting this goal. The hurdles to customer acceptance remain; cost, range, and charging infrastructure. There are elements of this EV thrust included in the congressional bill, including incentives to purchase EVs. (Read more from CAR here>>> )
The proposal creates concerns over the gap in incentives between EVs produced in union vs. non-union manufacturing facilities. As written, there is an extra $4500 incentive to purchase a vehicle built in a union manufacturing facility. Naturally, the automakers without union facilities are concerned over this provision and the potential uneven playing field. Frankly, it is hard to make a plea that those facilities that operate in the US, have high domestic content, and employ US workers should be placed at a disadvantage. If we want electrification to succeed, perhaps a more level playing field should be established to allow all potential buyers the choice they want at a price they can afford. Wouldn’t that be better to reduce our carbon footprint? Isn’t that the REAL goal? Let’s keep our eyes on the crucial fact that we want to improve our carbon footprint and make the globe a more healthy place to live and thrive.
My final point on this subject is that incentives work – period. We have seen it in other countries, so the sooner we agree on incentives, the better for EV sales.
Battery Recycling
- Ford will recycle its EV batteries with ex-Tesla exec’s startup
- CATL partners with BASF for EV battery material recycling
- Battery Resourcers Secures $70 Million in New Funding
- Canada’s Li-Cycle plans EV battery recycling facility in Alabama
My thoughts:
For some time, I’ve been saying that next door to every battery manufacturing plant should be a battery recycling plant. We must not consider manufacturing without the product’s end-of-life plan, and we must create products with the intention of a “0” waste process. It is great to see these agreements being made between battery makers and battery recyclers. It’s super smart and needs to be part of the overall equation.
Autonomous Shuttles and Robotaxis
- Longest AV Shuttle Route in North America Launches in Canada
- May Mobility to launch AV shuttle in Ann Arbor
- Eastern Michigan University to launch autonomous shuttle service on campus
- Robo Taxi Market Size to Reach USD 38.61 Billion by 2030 at CAGR 67.8% - Valuates Reports
- Electric robotaxis might not provide the greener travel everybody expects
- Aurora Plots Robotaxi Service With High-Tech Toyota Minivans
My thoughts:
As expected, we are seeing many shuttles starting on university campuses, senior living centers, and other locations with a “contained” roadway facility. It makes a ton of sense to learn, work with academia, and get young people tuned into automation. This rollout also reduces risk considerably and allows the artificial intelligence data to grow and be programmed into all AVs.
Then, as these vehicles are better-perfected, the integration of AVs and human-driven vehicles may be started in limited zones, maybe, as we still have a lot to learn in this regard. Human brains are unpredictable, and each person’s driving style is different and may vary day to day. The human element adds significant complexity to the matching learning algorithms. There is a lot of simulation and on-road testing to be done, analyzed, and perfected.
To that end, one of the best uses will be in robo-taxi or delivery vehicles that fundamentally do not stop and have no deadhead rides. Deadhead rides create congestion and a lack of greener travel, as indicated in the study above. Economically, those services with vehicles that don’t have downtime and are used efficiently are the ones that will survive and thrive in the future.
Autopilot Technology and Safety
- Ford unveils new off-road Expedition Timberline; adds hands-free highway driving
- I tried BlueCruise, Ford's hands-free driving rival to Tesla Autopilot and GM's Super Cruise
- Teslas Are Crashing Into Emergency Vehicles Too Much, So NHTSA Asks Other Car Companies About It
- MIT study finds Tesla drivers become inattentive when Autopilot is activated
My thoughts:
Hands-free driving is beneficial in terms of driver fatigue and accident avoidance. Those who have utilized it on long trips are quick to sing praises of the technology. However, the wrinkle in the technology is how the driver is evaluated in terms of attentiveness and how the programming works to realize its surrounding with accuracy.
As MIT reported, people quickly get used to the technology and become inattentive – they relax too much and are not ready to take over at any moment. This human behavior creates huge issues for safety, and even if the vehicle backup plan is to coast to the side of the road, that may also create safety issues as this technology increases in numbers.
First, let’s consider having common nomenclature and standards for vehicles operating as level 2. Then, let’s work together to determine the safest and best way to measure driver attentiveness and manage those vehicles that lack attentive drivers. Autopilot technology and safety require the “industry” to work collectively with NHTSA to remediate the risk.
Motor Bella
- Autos alfresco: Motor Bella comes to suburban Detroit
- Motor Bella Might Spell Ciao To Traditional Auto Shows
- Motor Bella: Car, Truck and Utility Vehicle of the Year semifinalists announced
- After pandemic forces cancellation of Auto Show Motor Bella emerges with up close look at future of cars
- Moved to Pontiac, new outdoor auto show features 'ride-alongs' and test drives of new cars
My thoughts:
The shift in the auto show format is driven by the expectation of the public who want an experience and not just a “show.” Auto shows have been moving in this direction for some time. Motor Bella will be a good gauge to judge if this will work for future shows. As we know, though, with any outdoor event, there will be weather concerns (Motor Bella was canceled on Wednesday due to flooding). Based on the success of this event, the Detroit Auto Show as we know it many never return…. we’ll see?
Best Regards,
Carla Bailo
President and CEO
Center for Automotive Research